Product Roadmap — Dual Track HS Build-Out

Magellan International IB School  |  Evidence base: 365 survey responses  |  New Head of School arriving July 2026
The One-Sentence Vision
Magellan becomes Austin’s only school where a child can enter at age three, develop genuine bilingual fluency through Spanish immersion, and choose between the full IB Diploma or a flexible non-IB pathway that builds on the IB foundations lived and learned through Grade 10 — including the option to take individual IB courses for certificate credit — all in one community, with no transitions, no applications, and no lottery.
365
Survey Responses
~21%
Gr.8→9 Conversion
~$3M
Implied HS Subsidy
20
Current HS Students
👪
For Families
Your child’s path from PK through graduation is guaranteed. No applications to Murchison. No lottery for Anderson. No gambling on three separate schools delivering a coherent education. One school. One community. One pathway — with a choice of how rigorous to make it.
💼
For Staff
Clarity. The school is building a Dual Track high school. Your role in that is defined. Your professional development investment is protected. The uncertainty ends.
🏛
For Board
A metric-driven plan with built-in decision gates. A Year 1 health check at May 2028, and a definitive decision at May 2029 after two full years of data. If it’s working, we accelerate. If it isn’t, we have a clean exit to a strong K-8. No sunk-cost trap.
The Honest Tradeoffs
⚠ Short-term pain
The next 18 months will feel like construction — messy, noisy, incomplete. Families will see a school in transition, not a finished product. That’s the cost of building something real.
❌ What we’re NOT building
We are not trying to become St. Stephen’s. We are not chasing UIL athletics. We are not offering 40 AP courses. We are building a school that does fewer things exceptionally well.
💰 Financial reality
Empty HS seats cost ~$3M in implied subsidy spread across existing families. We have FY27 + FY28 to demonstrate the HS can sustain itself. If it can’t, retreat to K-8 is an honest, responsible decision.
Communication Architecture — Narrative Spine
Honest diagnosis
→
What we heard from you
→
What we’re building
→
Why we chose this path
→
The tradeoffs
→
Your role
→
How we’ll know it’s working
Key Phrases by Parent Segment
Value Calculators
88 families
“We’re publishing the data. MAP scores by grade. You’ll be able to compare us to any public school in Austin — and we’re confident in what you’ll see.”
MS Attrition Risk
50 families
“We heard you on stress. We’ve already coordinated the summative calendar. We heard you on athletics. Intramural leagues start Fall 2027. We heard you on freedom — your 8th grader will experience HS-level independence next year.”
Elite Downtraders
48 families
“IB Diploma Programme authorization comes this fall. Our first students enter Grade 11 in Fall 2026. The first class takes IB exams in Spring 2028. We will publish those results.”
Mission Believers
67 families
“You already know why this matters. We need you to help us tell the story. One family. That’s the ask.”
Constraints That Shape Everything
1.Tuition for FY27 is already set
2.DP authorization expected Fall 2026
3.Silver cannot decide pathway in Month 1
4.MIS operates like a startup
5.Silver arrives July 2026
6.Class of 2028 is the first graduating class
Strategic Timeline
Pre-Silver
Spring–Summer 2026
Phase 1: Foundation
FY27 — Jul 2026 – Jun 2027
Phase 2: Build & Execute
FY28–FY29 — Jul 2027 – Jun 2029
MAY
2029
Decision Gate
▲ Path A: Narrow to Elite (IB DP Magnet)
▶ Path B: Continue Dual Track
▼ Path C: Strategic Retreat to K-8
Workstream Swim Lanes (click a phase above to highlight)
Pre-Silver
Phase 1 (FY27)
Phase 2 (FY28-29)
ACommunication Ar
HS-specific communications cadence
Silver town hall for parents (Act 1...
All-staff alignment session
Board briefing on decision framewor...
Second pathway announcement (Act 2)
Parent advocacy pitch deployment
“What We’re Not” inoculation messag...
BQuick Wins
Summative calendar coordination
Student agency audit (MS)
House system de-escalation
Academic outcomes storytelling
HS identity events
Intramural sports / club partnershi...
Elective choice mechanism
CProgram Design &
Design the non-IB alternative pathw...
Staff development for alternative p...
Prepare marketing materials for Fal...
“Just One Family” program launch
External conversion pipeline — all ...
DInfrastructure
Parent CRM
Enrollment tracking dashboard
Survey baseline & KPI instrument
Outcomes tracking system
Three Paths at the Decision Point (May 2029)
▲
Path A: Narrow to Elite (IB DP Magnet)
Trigger
Gr.8→Gr.9 conversion exceeds 50%+ in Year 2, DP pathway enrollment > non-IB alternative, external HS applicants growing, satisfaction trending up, HS approaching breakeven trajectory.
What Changes
Begin phasing down the non-IB alternative pathway. Increase DP rigor emphasis. Raise tuition toward $28K+. Position as Austin’s premier IB DP school.
Risk: Narrowing too early loses students who chose the alternative pathway (survey shows 2:1 preference for flexibility over full DP).
▶
Path B: Continue Dual Track
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME
Trigger
KPIs on trajectory but need more time. Conversion improving but below target. Satisfaction mixed but trending positive. Financial picture improving but not yet at breakeven.
What Changes
Nothing structural. Continue executing. Invest in whichever pathway is generating more demand. Re-evaluate at next annual gate.
This is the most likely outcome. Building a HS from scratch takes 3-5 years for trajectory to become clear.
▼
Path C: Strategic Retreat to K-8
Trigger
Gr.8→Gr.9 conversion below 25% after two years of interventions, HS enrollment below bond covenant floor, satisfaction declining despite changes, HS operating loss exceeding threshold with no recovery trajectory.
What Changes
Announce wind-down of HS over 1-2 years (honor commitments to enrolled families). Consolidate to K-8. Reinvest in K-8 excellence.
This is not failure. It’s responsible stewardship. The school tried, measured, and made a data-driven decision. The K-8 is strong and worth protecting.
7 KPIs
7 metrics or fewer Baselines from this survey Leading AND lagging
A startup school with no data team cannot track 20 KPIs. Pick the ones that matter. Every metric below has a known starting point from the 365-voice survey or FY26 financials. Click any KPI to see the Action → KPI causal map.
1
Gr.8→Gr.9 Internal Conversion Rate
The primary engine. If this doesn’t move, nothing else matters.
~21%
30%+
40%+
50%+
Baseline (FY26)FY27FY28FY29 Target
▼
Action → KPI Causal Map
Phase Actions That Drive This KPI Why This Sequence
Pre-Silver Summative calendar coordination (removes #1 stress complaint); HS comms cadence (30/100 → visible HS); House system de-escalation Stop the bleeding. Address two causes of switching pressure before any programmatic change.
FY27 Foundation Student agency audit → MS students taste HS-level independence; HS identity events; Silver town hall; Pathway announcement (Dec 2026) → 8th graders see a second option Freedom is Magellan’s #1 HS strength (40%), but MS students don’t experience it. Bridging that gap changes the 8th grader’s calculation.
FY28 Build Yr 1 Dual Track launches → students experience the alternative pathway; Outcomes storytelling begins (MAP, first IB exam results Spring 2028); Ambassador program → current HS students recruited to speak to MS families Now the school has a product to show, not just a promise. The 28 Persuadable students can see real peers in a real program.
FY29 Build Yr 2 Second Dual Track cohort; first college placement data emerging; two years of satisfaction trend data; word-of-mouth compounding By Year 2, the school has proof — exam results, college outcomes, satisfied students. The conversation shifts from “trust us” to “look at this.”
2
HS Total Enrollment
Internal conversion is the base. External pipeline fills the margin.
20
30-35
45-55
60-75
Baseline (FY26)FY27FY28FY29 Target
▼
Action → KPI Causal Map
Phase Actions That Drive This KPI Why This Sequence
FY27 Foundation “Just One Family” launch (referral pipeline); External conversion pipeline development (AIS, YPW, other IB schools, public school transition families); Admissions CRM implementation You can’t manage what you don’t measure. The CRM must exist before the pipeline actions produce leads.
FY28 Build Yr 1 External pipelines active → AIS Gr.11 entry, YPW feeder families, public school Gr.9 entry; MAP publication → gives Prospective Families verifiable data; Dual Track as marketing message → “choose your intensity” widens the addressable pool MAP publication enables the external pipeline because prospective families currently have zero data to benchmark Magellan.
FY29 Build Yr 2 Gr.11 entry point fully active (IB certificate students can join for final 2 years); First IB exam results published → recruitment proof point; Referral pipeline compounding (Year 2 of “Just One Family”) Gr.11 entry only works once DP is authorized and the school can demonstrate the certificate pathway.
3
Parent Perception Gap
Close the gap between what parents believe (83.5) and what students experience (41.4).
<25 pts
<30 pts
<35 pts
42.1 pts
FY29 Target◀ IMPROVING (lower is better)Baseline
▼
Action → KPI Causal Map
Phase Actions That Drive This KPI Why This Sequence
FY27 Foundation Quick wins directly improve student experience (stress, agency, events) → student satisfaction rises; HS comms cadence → parents become informed; Quarterly pulse surveys → gap measured more frequently The gap closes from both directions: improve the student experience (push 41.4 up) AND inform parents about reality (pull 83.5 toward accuracy).
FY28-FY29 Build Dual Track improves student choice → satisfaction rises further; Outcomes storytelling gives parents evidence → confidence becomes data-based, not hope-based; Annual survey repeats FY26 baseline questions Students who chose the alternative pathway are in a program they wanted, not one imposed on them.
4
Parent NPS by Division
NPS is the advocacy metric. It drives “Just One Family” and organic word-of-mouth.
Overall +43
MS > 25
MS > 30
MS > 35
Baseline (FY26)FY27FY28FY29 Target
▼
Action → KPI Causal Map
Phase Actions That Drive This KPI Why This Sequence
FY27 Foundation Quick wins address top MS friction points (stress, agency, house system); Silver’s communication → parents feel heard; Parent advocacy pitch → gives promoters the words to use NPS is a lagging indicator of experience. Fix the experience first (quick wins), then equip the promoters (advocacy pitch).
FY28-FY29 Build Visible outcomes (MAP, IB exams) give MS parents confidence about the HS trajectory; Dual Track addresses the “what will my kid do in HS?” uncertainty that suppresses MS NPS MS NPS declines because parents see the HS uncertainty and project it onto their own child’s future. Removing that uncertainty is the highest-leverage NPS intervention.
5
HS Student Satisfaction
The 20 current HS students are the proof-of-concept cohort. Their word-of-mouth is the most powerful retention signal.
56.0/100
> 60
> 65
> 65
Baseline (FY26)FY27FY28FY29 Target
▼
Action → KPI Causal Map
Phase Actions That Drive This KPI Why This Sequence
Pre-Silver / FY27 HS comms cadence (30/100 is the lowest score in the entire survey); Summative calendar coordination; HS identity events; Student agency preservation Communication is the floor. Fix it first. Then address stress (calendar). Then build identity (events). Sequence matters.
FY28-FY29 Build Dual Track adds course variety and pathway choice; Growing HS cohort improves social experience (20 students → 45+ = more peer relationships); Athletics/club partnerships mature Many student complaints (small size, limited courses, limited social life) are symptoms of 20-student scale, not program design failures.
6
“Just One Family” Referral Pipeline
The lowest-cost acquisition channel. Depends on NPS and advocacy readiness.
0
50+ inquiries
75+, 10%+ conversion
100+, 15%+ conversion
Baseline (FY26)FY27FY28FY29 Target
▼
Action → KPI Causal Map
Phase Actions That Drive This KPI Why This Sequence
FY27 Foundation Program launch → structured ask at events; Referral tracking in CRM; Parent advocacy pitch deployed Depends on: CRM (must exist to track referrals); Parent advocacy pitch (must be deployed so parents have words); NPS stabilization (parents won’t refer if they’re unhappy).
FY28-FY29 Build Year 2+ compounding; Recognition program for referring families; MAP publication gives referring parents proof to share Referrals compound — a family referred in Year 1 who enrolls tells their network in Year 2.
7
HS Breakeven Trajectory
The financial constraint. Driven by enrollment (revenue side) and cost discipline (cost side).
~$3M loss
Narrowing
On trajectory
Breakeven
FY26 BaselineFY27FY28FY29 Target
▼
Action → KPI Causal Map
Phase Actions That Drive This KPI Why This Sequence
FY27 Foundation Market-rate tuition already set for FY27; Cost controls — no new HS-specific capital, staff hired must be flexible across divisions; Enrollment growth from retention improvements begins narrowing per-capita subsidy Breakeven is mostly an enrollment problem, not a pricing problem. Every additional HS student reduces the per-capita fixed cost allocation.
FY28-FY29 Build Dual Track widens enrollment funnel → more students → more revenue; External pipeline adds Gr.9 and Gr.11 entrants; Tuition escalators compound on a growing base The key sensitivity: does enrollment reach the bond covenant floor fast enough to avoid triggering the financial exit?
Trigger Interpretation Rules
1 trigger fires:Board conversation. Investigate root cause. May be addressable. 2+ triggers fire:Serious reassessment. Likely triggers Path C evaluation. All triggers clear:Continue on Dual Track (Path B) or evaluate narrowing toward Elite (Path A). No trigger but flat:This is Path B — continue. Building a HS takes time. Flat is not failure. Declining is failure.
Gr.8→Gr.9 Conversion
Year 1 Stop
< 20% despite comms + quick wins + pathway announcement
Year 2 Retreat
< 25% after 1 full year of Dual Track operation
What it means: Interventions had no measurable effect on the pipeline. The HS cannot fill from internal families.
HS Enrollment Trajectory
Year 1 Stop
< 30 students total (barely above current 20)
Year 2 Retreat
< 45 students total after Dual Track Year 1
What it means: Even with a second pathway and external recruitment, the HS cannot reach critical mass.
HS Breakeven Trajectory
Year 1 Stop
HS operating loss not narrowing from FY26 baseline
Year 2 Retreat
HS operating loss worsening or flat — no credible path to breakeven within 3-5 years
What it means: The HS subsidy is consuming resources that endanger K-8 quality. Bond covenant floor is the hard stop.
Parent Satisfaction Trend
Year 1 Stop
MS parent NPS declines below 15 OR >40% of MS parents “considered leaving”
Year 2 Retreat
Same thresholds — if Year 1 showed “Concern,” check whether intervention reversed the trend
What it means: The HS build-out is actively damaging the K-8 pipeline. The school is losing its base to feed a program that isn’t working.
Staff Stability
Year 1 Stop
>25% HS teacher turnover in a single year
Year 2 Retreat
>20% HS teacher turnover in Year 2
What it means: The program cannot retain the faculty needed to deliver quality. Burnout or misalignment.
Two Checkpoints
Year 1 Health Check — May 2028
Review KPIs against Year 1 targets.
Continue (trending right) / Concern (flat or mixed — investigate, adjust) / Stop (below retreat thresholds — don’t wait another year)
Definitive Decision — May 2029
Two full years of enrollment data, Gr.8→Gr.9 conversion trends, satisfaction trajectories. First IB DP exam results available. First college placement data emerging. Board reviews full KPI portfolio and selects long-term path.
Silver town hall for parents (Act 1)
Phase 1 Head of School Month 1-2 (Aug/Sep 2026)
▼
Vision + quick wins narrative. NOT the pathway announcement. “We listened. Here’s what changes now.” Q&A. Record it.
Tool/Cost: Existing venue
All-staff alignment session
Phase 1 HoS + Division Heads Week 1 of Silver’s tenure
▼
The staff narrative. Vision + quick wins. Department breakouts follow.
Tool/Cost: Existing PD day
Board briefing on decision framework
Phase 1 HoS + Capstone team Pre-arrival or Month 1
▼
Present the 3-phase plan, KPIs, exit triggers.
Tool/Cost: Board meeting slot
HS-specific communications cadence
Pre-Silver HS Division Head Start immediately (HS comms score: 30/100)
▼
Weekly parent email from HS Division Head. Monthly “HS Update” to all families.
Tool/Cost: Google Docs → email
Second pathway announcement (Act 2)
Phase 1 Head of School By December 2026
▼
Silver announces the specific non-IB alternative + IB certificate track for Fall 2027.
Tool/Cost: Town hall + written follow-up
Parent advocacy pitch deployment
Phase 1 Marketing/Admissions Month 2-3
▼
Give every current parent a 60-90 sec script (from survey language) answering “why Magellan?”
Tool/Cost: One-page PDF + parent event
“What We’re Not” inoculation messaging
Phase 1 Marketing Month 2-3
▼
Proactive framing of trade-offs as strengths. Website, tour script, FAQ.
Tool/Cost: Website update (existing CMS)
8 Open Questions
1
Bond covenant floor — what is the actual number?
TBC
▼
Enrollment-based, revenue-based, or debt-coverage-ratio? This is the financial exit trigger that matters most.
2
HS enrollment targets — are 45-55 (FY28) and 60-75 (FY29) realistic?
OPEN
▼
Need to fill the pipe or we retreat. There isn’t a “soft” middle ground — either the pipeline produces or the HS isn’t viable. Consider reframing as minimum thresholds rather than aspirational ranges.
3
Gr.8→Gr.9 conversion targets — 35% (FY28), 40% (FY29) too low?
PUSH HIGHER
▼
Even 40% may be too low. Internal conversion should be the primary engine. Consider 40% (FY28) and 50%+ (FY29), benchmarked against the 66% global IB MYP→DP rate.
4
MAP score publication — ready to go?
LIKELY YES
▼
If MAP scores are as good as communicated (80-90th percentile), publication is a clear go. This gives Value Calculators (88 families, 39.5%) the data they need. Next step: verify actual MAP scores against Austin averages.
5
Non-IB alternative pathway specifics — how defined?
NOT YET DEFINED
▼
This is Silver’s first 6 months of work (Act 2 of the communication timeline — announce by YE 2026). The framework doesn’t require the pathway to be fully designed today — it requires a deadline (Dec 2026) and a process.
6
External conversion pipelines — AIS, YPW, other IB schools, Gr.11 entry
CONCEPTUAL ONLY
▼
All pipeline strategies are conceptual at this stage. No outreach has occurred. Present them as pipeline opportunities to develop, not existing relationships to activate.
7
Staff capacity for quick wins — who implements, when?
PRE-SILVER POSSIBLE
▼
Quick wins could even be implemented before Silver starts — by current leadership, division heads, or the outgoing HoS during transition. They must be prioritized and addressed as capacity permits.
8
Survey instrument revision — who designs it?
SILVER’S TEAM
▼
The revised annual survey aligned to 7 KPIs is Silver’s team to design and own. The capstone deliverable should include: (a) the 7 KPIs with baseline values, (b) the core survey questions that establish those baselines, and (c) a recommendation for which questions to retain, revise, or add.