Magellan — Research-Calibrated Scenario Model

How to Use This Scenario Model

A strategic financial tool for evaluating 4 options for Magellan's future — built on 365 survey responses and FY25 actuals.

☞ Quick Start — 3 Steps

Pick a scenario from the bar at the top. Each represents a different strategic path: Elite IB DP, Dual Track (paid/discounted HS), or Return to K-8.

Drag the sliders to test assumptions. All KPIs, charts, and tables recalculate instantly. What if retention is only 50%? What if fundraising doubles?

Check the Exit Triggers at the bottom. These are the FY28 "go/no-go" thresholds the board should monitor before committing long-term.

📊 Two Viewing Modes

Board View Designed for presentation. Shows 6 headline KPIs, 4 key sliders, financial trajectory chart, enrollment pipeline, and exit triggers — everything a board member needs on one screen.

Working Model Full analytical view with 8 tabs for deep dives. Every enrollment cell is editable, every assumption adjustable. Use this for detailed financial planning and "what-if" analysis.

💰 What the 4 Scenarios Mean

Option A — Elite IB DP Track: Full-price HS ($28K), rely on external recruitment. Requires 180 HS students to break even.
Option B — Dual Track (Paid): Add IB CP pathway alongside DP. Wider funnel, but still full-price HS. Needs 140 HS students.
Option B + Discounted HS (The Magellan Promise): Discounted HS tuition, funded by K-8 premium + Promise fundraising. Projects 75% MS→HS retention. The flagship scenario.
Option C — Return to K-8: Wind down HS by FY28. Focus on the proven K-8 model. Lowest risk, but forfeits HS growth.

⚠️ Understanding Exit Triggers

Exit triggers are pre-defined thresholds the board monitors by FY28 (Year 2). If any trigger fires 🚨 TRIGGER, the board should reassess the strategy. All 6 must show ✅ PASS for the plan to continue. These are visible in Board View and in the KPI Dashboard tab of the Working Model.

📝 Working Model — Tab Guide

Parameters: All editable assumptions — HS tuition, premiums, retention, fundraising, aid rates, tuition escalation
Enrollment: Grade-by-grade enrollment grid (FY26-FY30). Click any cell to change a number.
Revenue: Tuition by division, premium revenue, fundraising, giving, and other income
Cost Model: Fixed costs ($11.4M), teacher staffing (PreK class size 16, K-8 class size 20), and variable costs ($650/student)
P&L Waterfall: Full profit & loss statement with surplus/deficit trajectory chart
Funding Gap: How much the "Promise" costs vs. what premiums + fundraising + retention uplift cover. Includes sensitivity analysis.
KPI Dashboard: Projected vs. target values for 6 key metrics, color-coded. Plus exit trigger monitor.
Scenario Compare: Side-by-side comparison of all 4 scenarios using their default assumptions
10-Year Outlook: Full FY26-FY35 projections for all 4 scenarios, including Phase 2 "Right to Charge" transition. The complete strategic picture.

💡 Key Financial Assumptions

Tuition: Based on FY26-FY27 published rates. FY28+ includes strategic increases (2% → 1.5% → 1%) — same as the Integrated Financial Model.
Fixed costs: $11.39M/yr (10 line items from FY25 actuals: admin, facilities, insurance, etc.). Held constant across scenarios.
Teacher cost: $75,600 avg. compensation. Staffing: 2.0 FTE per PreK/primary section, 1.4 per G4-8 section, 1.6 per HS section.
Aid rate: FY26 uses FY25 actual (7.56%); FY27+ defaults to 8.0% — adjustable.
Annual giving: $1.04M base growing at 2%/yr. Separate from Promise Campaign fundraising.