The Escalation: Grade 6 → Grade 7 → Grade 8
Every retention metric deteriorates from Grade 6 to Grade 8. This is not a gradual decline — it is a cliff.
By 8th grade, 70.6% of students are in the Critical segment and switching pressure is +18.5 points above the MS average.
70.6%
G8 Critical Segment
77.8/100
G8 Switching Pressure
| Metric |
Grade 6 (n=52) |
Grade 7 (n=36) |
Grade 8 (n=34) |
MS Avg (n=122) |
| Intent Score (0-100) |
36.3 |
33.9 |
29.3 |
33.6 |
| Retention Propensity |
44.1 |
43.8 |
34.8 |
41.4 |
| Switching Pressure |
47.7 |
58.4 |
77.8 |
59.3 |
| Belonging & Safety |
58.4 |
68.9 |
65.5 |
63.5 |
| Academic Confidence |
66.3 |
75.2 |
76.7 |
71.9 |
| Stress Load |
62.6 |
50.8 |
55.2 |
57.1 |
| Teacher/Org Quality |
68.0 |
71.7 |
66.9 |
68.8 |
| Peer Signal |
32.2 |
25.2 |
23.3 |
27.7 |
| Recommendation Score |
38.9 |
45.1 |
46.3 |
42.8 |
| Pathway Awareness |
48.1 |
54.2 |
75.0 |
57.4 |
| HS Preparedness |
61.1 |
68.1 |
68.4 |
65.2 |
| NPS |
-88 |
-83 |
-74 |
-83 |
| Critical Segment % |
40.4% |
47.2% |
70.6% |
50.8% |
| Decided Leaver % |
40.4% |
47.2% |
70.6% |
50.8% |
The Cliff Is Real
Switching pressure jumps from 47.7 (G6) to 77.8 (G8) — a +30.1 point escalation.
Meanwhile, intent to stay drops from 36.3 to 29.3.
By 8th grade, 70.6% are Decided Leavers, 58.8% say "No" to Magellan HS,
and the student NPS is -74. The remaining Persuadable count: 2 students.
Feature Gaps: What Students Want vs. What Magellan Offers
Gap scores measure how much better students think competitors are at each feature.
Higher = bigger gap = greater competitive vulnerability.
Where Are They Going?
Parent-Student Alignment
Student Voice
Score Comparison: Stayers vs. Persuadable vs. Leavers
Gap Comparison: What Stayers vs. Leavers See
Feature gap scores for Committed stayers vs. Decided Leavers. Negative delta = stayers see SMALLER gaps.
| Feature Gap |
Committed |
Leavers |
Delta |
Top Feature Gaps → Actionable Levers
The 5 largest competitive gaps, mapped to potential interventions with feasibility assessment.
Cascade Risk: The Social Signal